{"id":"894a37ae-ddfa-4421-8257-3da5ebb94ba2","title":"乌鲁木齐河流域人口、城市化、GDP及产业结构预测情景数据（V1.0）（2010-2050）","title_en":"Population, urbanization, GDP and industrial structure forecast scenario data of the Urmuqi River Basin (Version 1.0) (2010-2050)","serial":"地球大数据科学工程专项时空三极环境项目","user_limit":"为尊重知识产权、保障数据作者的权益、扩展数据中心的服务、评估数据的应用潜力，请数据使用者在使用数据所产生的研究成果中（包括公开发表的论文、论著、数据产品和未公开发表的研究报告、数据产品等成果），明确注明数据来源和数据作者。对于转载（二次或多次发布）的数据，作者还须注明原始数据来源。","instructions":"","description":"未来人口情景预测以2005年为基准年，采用人口阻滞增长模型，不仅能够较好地描述人口与许多生物数量的变化规律，而且在经济领域也有广泛的应用。城市化率的预测采用城市化Logistics模型。依据已有的城市化水平序列值，通过非线性回归求出参数式中参数，建立预测模型。城市人口数量由预测的人口数乘以城镇化率求出。数据采用非农业人口。采用logistic模型预测流域未来各县市国民生产总值，然后根据未来各县市各时段经济发展水平（用人均GDP表示）设定各时段相应的产业结构情景，预测各次产业产值。我国及研究区产业结构的变化趋势滞后于GDP增长速度，因而根据设定的研究区未来产业结构情景需要进行了适当调整。","doi":"10.11888/Socio-econ.tpe.00000039.file","projection":"","language":"zh","share_type":"online","east":87.0,"west":86.0,"south":43.0,"north":44.0,"scale":null,"crs":null,"filesize":0.01,"share_policy":"a","ts_created":"2018-02-14T06:40:19+08:00","doi_type":"沿用数据已有DOI","ts_updated":"2021-04-19T20:02:10.814502+08:00","time_description":"","datas_group":3,"time_description_en":"","data_format":"EXCEL","project":[10,11],"specials":["1832ecb3-70d0-4b5e-bdb5-2e9ff4ad1efe","f2a78cde-1c98-4241-94dc-7532eba32b80"],"cite":"杨林生，钟方雷. 乌鲁木齐河流域2010-2050年人口、城市化、GDP及产业结构预测情景数据（V1.0）. 时空三极环境大数据共享与集成平台. 2018","review_status":5,"review_invite":[],"review_editor":{"id":21057,"last_login":"2022-04-02T11:43:37.753860+08:00","username":"gecm","email":"gechm@lzb.ac.cn","is_active":true,"is_staff":true,"user_name":"盖春梅"},"data_sources":"","temporal_resolution":"","spatial_resolution":"","license":"Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International (CC BY-NC-SA 4.0)","fund":[5],"subtopics":{"metadata":"894a37ae-ddfa-4421-8257-3da5ebb94ba2","three_pole":"XDA19070502","third_pole":null},"username":"王利","review_time":null,"protected_duration":6,"protected_describe":null,"is_important":false,"hit_count":2436}